Tracking the Tropics: Tropical wave off African coast has 80% chance of development over next week

We are a little over two weeks into this year’s hurricane season. Normally, early-season activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean or off the coast of the Carolinas.

But the National Hurricane Center is highlighting a wave that has drifted off the coast of Africa and is positioned in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. While conditions are unfavorable for the next two days, that is not the case over the next week. The NHC has now increased the chances of tropical development to 80% with a tropical depression likely to form in the Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. The wave of energy is expected to move west before turning west-northwest.

The European weather model has been constantly showing this wave surviving as it moves across the eastern Atlantic, and now the American model is coming into agreement.